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the relative neglect of the microscopic analysis of individual behavior,, and in fact often the macro and micro economic development, the integration of macro aggregates is built on the basis of the microscopic behavior.
that technical progress Human capital increase, information,, etc.; five institutional change through institutional change can mobilize everyone's enthusiasm and creativity, promote economic growth; six distorted especially depress prices of production factors; seven is down welfare spending and increase economic development expenditures; eight adopt economic stimulus; nine through government enterprise, the pursuit of high economic growth.Now look, six of which have suffered different degrees of problems, only institutional change, structural optimization,, upgrading of these three elements is the main driving force in the future force, the most important is the institutional change, because the structure and elements of optimization upgrades are dependent on institutional change.Life Week: In other words, we have to use the means to stimulate economic development.
and maintain their competitive advantage in low-cost disappear off welfare spending should be compressed to make up later. Leaving only the institutional change, structural optimization, elements of these three aspects of the upgrade issue, in order to promote sustainable economic development. After that we do macroeconomic analysis, is not it should pay more attention to changes in these three factors?Zuo Jun: I think we should analyze the macroeconomic perspective some more dollars,, in the past we are too dependent on Keynesian macroeconomic analysis framework, in fact, a lot of deficiencies.Keynesian macroeconomic analysis framework overemphasis on exports,, investment and consumption demand of these three effects,, the relative neglect of the role of supply, and in fact economic development is the result of interaction of supply and demand,, supply factors, including technological advances,, increased human capital, structural upgrade even institutional innovation.We have too much emphasis on short-term analysis, long-term analysis of relative neglect. Our analysis also too much emphasis on economic factors, the relative neglect of analysis of non-economic factors; too much emphasis on the role of government,, the relative neglect of the role of the market. In the past few years, the anti-crisis, the government was using the Keynesian theory: the crisis came, economic growth declined, unemployment increased,, it began to emphasize the role of government,, massive investment by the government,, large-scale construction, large-scale printing money. This brings two results: on the one hand, rapid economic recovery and rebound, immediate; on the other hand, the economy has begun to emerge,, or impending massive asset price bubbles, massive inflation, massive bad debts, massive debt the burden of massive overcapacity and large-scale market-oriented backwards.In addition, we over-emphasize the total macroscopic analysis.
leading to decline in economic growth.Life Week: In addition to the reasons for our own stage of development, is not there external factors?Zuo Jun: external factors have played a role,, such as my foreign demand declined. The international economic crisis in the past, part of our external demand will be picked up, but there are some external demand permanently disappeared. Because the United States and other countries also reflect the international financial crisis, to reflect on their past economic development mode of "high consumption, excessive consumption, consumer debt" for the features. Results reflect on is that they will never get so much high consumption, excessive consumption and debt spending. This means that even if the end of the international economic crisis, there is a part of China's export demand permanently disappeared.These are means that China's potential economic growth rate declined. This is a variety of resources and factors of production environments to support optimal growth. In the past due to resource and environmental constraints are not too big.
with the release of more productivity institutional change, so you can maintain rapid growth for so long. But now increasing resource and environmental constraints,, institutional change frees up space productivity is relatively narrow, so the potential economic growth rate has declined."Squeeze bubble" and "soft landing"Life Week: A few years ago when scholars began to call China a competitive advantage in the global fall dramatically,, mention is to reduce the "demographic dividend". "Demographic dividend" of change, is an important factor in China's economic growth down the right?Zuo Jun: the demographic dividend is only one factor affecting China's economic growth,, economic growth momentum on our objective, broad face involved. Including the demand for power, that is, we often say "Troika"; Second, structural optimization power, industrialization, urbanization,, regional economic integration, industrial upgrading; third is to increase the factor inputs; Fourth elements upgrade.
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